Quote:
Originally Posted by npg
Likewise, I don't really feel that I have the knowledge to decipher a banks accounts. Pabrai's endorsement is not enough to make it a purchase per se.
I am ok for taking a stake distressed business where one can figure out how bad things are and is able to work out scenarios and their probabilities of success (see USG) --- but with banking I am clueless.
And I am not alone. Looks like there are a lot of clueless people in the banking sector, having had no more of an idea than I had.
Unless one digs that sector (like Buffett etc Co.) I'd stay away for the time being. This is just too hairy for me. There are plenty of other fish in the pond.
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If/when I do purchase some bank shares, it will probably be one of Buffett's banks (BAC, WFC, USB) or possibly SNV. I don't believe in technical analysis, at least as a predictive tool. My last concession to T/A, in fact my only one, is the Coppock Curve; its buy signals are uncanny and have never failed me. I'll wait until the Coppock for the Amex Bank Index (^BKX) goes on a buy. I should plug in the XHB (homebuilders SPDR) also.
Oops. Just plugged the numbers for XHB into my super-proprietary Coppock spreadsheet which runs, not on Excel, but on a secret pseudo-spreadsheet program I picked up from the villagers in Piscataway, NJ, I think it was. Anyway, XHB is less than 2 years old, so it won't work. Insufficient data. I need an XHB substitute.