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As far as their desktop boxes are concerned, I would strongly argue this segment has the biggest potential to contribute to AAPL earnings surprises. 95% of boxes aren't macs. It is thus quite conceivable that, especially as todays teens (who perceive AAPL gear as a must have) mature and get to buy their own kit, their desktop sales increase by a nice margin.

If AAPL has an (insignificant) market share of 10% in the future, it won't have taken a huge bite out of MSFT's market, but it will have doubled it's sales (and potentially opened a lot more revenue streams as result).

How is MSFT going to increase their market share by 100% in the desktop arena? Mathematically it is not possible. They are running against quite a few walls right now. In the last 5 years their bvps has hardly grown and it has a sharp dip (-15%) TTM. Evidence enough for a ceiling.

I don't sanction anything AAPL does, but I do make a compelling argument for its growth potential (it won't be a given, they can still mess it up) and wanted to highlight the under-estimated business of their desktop computers --which is increasingly doing better.