Quote:
Originally Posted by npg
As far as their desktop boxes are concerned, I would strongly argue this segment has the biggest potential to contribute to AAPL earnings surprises. 95% of boxes aren't macs. It is thus quite conceivable that, especially as todays teens (who perceive AAPL gear as a must have) mature and get to buy their own kit, their desktop sales increase by a nice margin.
If AAPL has an (insignificant) market share of 10% in the future, it won't have taken a huge bite out of MSFT's market, but it will have doubled it's sales (and potentially opened a lot more revenue streams as result).
How is MSFT going to increase their market share by 100% in the desktop arena? Mathematically it is not possible. They are running against quite a few walls right now. In the last 5 years their bvps has hardly grown and it has a sharp dip (-15%) TTM. Evidence enough for a ceiling.
I don't sanction anything AAPL does, but I do make a compelling argument for its growth potential (it won't be a given, they can still mess it up) and wanted to highlight the under-estimated business of their desktop computers --which is increasingly doing better.
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Just checked Reuters research on Apple on my e-trade site and BVS has more than doubled the past 4 years. It has an * next to TTM which I'm sure is becaused of delayed financials due to option expense restating. Googled the cancer thing appears is an old story. He had a treatable lesion and had surgery a couple of years ago. Think the "edgies" (hedge fund Cramer speak) are running rumor's so to get out of thier short positions. You got to read Cramer's "Confessions..." to get a read on what the big boys do to manipulate stock prices.
Not a true 10 year history to go by but I still put it in my #1 list. I think most number oners are not perfect for 10 years or for another 10 years going foward.
GRock
