good observations jkruer01,
Just for the sake of discussion, here are some gaps in that line of argument.
#1. Does less than N companies with MOS mean that the stock market is due for a fall?
I could argue that if
- I can show a correlation between the number of MOS stocks and stock market downturns &
- I can show a the threshold N (+/-r) under which the stock market has historically tumbled
then that line of reasoning has its merits.
#2. How do we know if the flat period has not shrunk historically and is now 6 or less years? With a sample size of 3 and a large Standard Deviation, it is not possible to statistically predict that the 4th period will be 15+ yrs.
1st Flat period: 15 yrs
2nd Flat period: 25 yrs
3rd Flat period: 16 yrs
As I said earlier, this is just for the sake of discussion, I think you could very well be right.