Automatic MOS Calculator Watchlist for Microsoft Excel --- *Temporarily Offline*

[likewyatt]

I would like to pull 4-5 data items from yahoo and msn using a watchlist of tickers. Would it be possible for Justin to send me the watchlist update code so I could try to accomplish this. I've searched internet and this forum and cannot find examples for what I'm trying to do.

Thanks.

[jbarrett2]

My opinion: You're just(in) awesome! To think you're doing all of this pro-bono ... WOW!

On my end, deep appreciation and I'll wait however long for whatever you come up with. It's an incredible tool. Every member of this forum should give you a standing ovation for even attempting this. It's huge!

Best,

John

[Justin]

The latest edition of our Automatic Margin of Safety Calculator can be downloaded from this location:
http://www.roicommunity.com/uploaded/mos_calc111.xls (Updated 9/8/2007)

This spreadsheet was created using Windows XP and Microsoft Office 2002. I have not tested it outside of this environment, although I'm hearing reports that it does not work well with Windows Vista or Office 2007. Haven't had a chance to look into this yet, and probably won't because Vista isn't my thing.

This spreadsheet has been designed to perform the rather laborious task of collecting the massive amounts of data needed to make a relatively accurate assesment of a company's fundamental strength, and assist you in placing an appropriate valuation on that company's share price based on this data. I have followed the principles of Phil Town's Rule #1 method as to the best of my understanding, however it should be noted that I am not a financial advisor, nor qualified to instruct you on how to build your portfolio. In fact, I'm just a normal blue collar 9-5 guy that "kills bugs for a living."

I found Phil Town's methods to be a breath of fresh air in the chaotic world of investing, and set out to create a tool that would make the most efficient use of my limited time. I chose to do this by harnessing the amazing power of Microsoft Excel and coupling that with the simple logic of Rule #1 Investing. This spreadsheet is the culmination of efforts not only by my own hand, but also of others who have shown me some pretty intense advanced Excel techniques since the onset of this project nearly two years ago.

I have yet do find the time to make an offical FAQ for this project, and for that I apologize. There is one thing that I do need to address here, as it seems to be the most common problem people run into. The behavior of the spreadsheet is that it always uses the most conservative historical data in the final steps of Margin of Safety Calculation. This means that if a company had a "rough and tumble" year at some point in its 10-Year Past, that value is going throw the final resulting Margin of Safety to be "off".

For example, run SBUX and look at the "Rule #1 Valuation Analysis" table on the top right. The values I'm talking about here are the "Rule #1 Growth Rate, Rule #1 PE, and the Current EPS (TTM)". In the case of SBUX, the default Rule #1 Growth Rate is 4%, the default Rule #1 PE is 8, and the Current EPS (TTM) is $0.81. These numbers may not be the most appropriate values to use, particularly if they are based on an anomolous year from the company's past. If we work backwards and reverse engineer the formula, we see that the 3 Yr. Equity Growth Rate calculated as 4%, even though the 9, 5, and 1 Yr Equity Growth Rates are much more favorable. The Same logic applies to the Rule #1 PE, as in the case of SBUX, the default value is 8, even though the Current PE is actually 32! You should also always look at the Current EPS (TTM), and verify the validity of that value. It is rare but still all too common for the Source Data (In this case MSN Money) to be incorrect. The best way to verify the validity of this number is to compare it with an alternative data source such as Morningstar, ADVFN, etc.

In any case, you'll see an additional set of boxes shaded in blue labled "Scenario #2 Margin of Safety". This feature will allow you to override the conservative values chosen by default, with new numbers of your own choosing. This will help ensure you are getting the most out of the tool.

Use this as a preliminary search tool, and please check and recheck the data! With all the time this spreadsheet saves, you can afford to invest the extra 5 or 10 minutes required to do so. And in those cases where you find an anomolous piece of data do some research. Go beyond the Numbers and find out what went wrong that year. Sometimes you'll find that the most conservative value, isn't necessarily the most appropriate value to use.

This spreadsheet can be copied and redistributed FREELY, so long as it remains completely UNMODIFIED from the original document.

Thanks and have fun!

Justin Brand

admin@roicommunity.com
http://www.roicommunity.com

[Justin]

An update is available at the top of this thread. This update reflects minor changes that appear on several company reports throughout the data site.

[tonmdn]

Dear Justin,

Would you please post a new explanation here about what the color coded cells means. I lost previous thread that have your explanation on this.

Thanks in advance

Tonmdn

[docdestructo62]

Hi Justin! The calculator is unable to access some of the cells, again. Doc

[docdestructo62]

It says, "The file could not be accessed." This happened with the other one for awhile and then it suddenly started to work again. Am I doing something wrong?

[docdestructo62]

The spreadsheet seems to be working this morning except for the TTM ROIC. It must be something at MSN.

[Justin]

I can't say I am experiencing the same problem myself. Can anyone else confirm?

[schmeisser]

working fine for me.