Fundamental Analysis, Rule #1, Graham and Phil

[jmcanoy1860]

I've been reading posts on this board for a long time, lurking in corners etc. I'm surprised that everyone, with a few exceptions, is misreading everything from Graham, Warren, and Phil, expecting to much from TA, and just not being patient. Every (almost) hugely successful INVESTOR has been in it for the long term.

The shortest term Phil got into was about 3 YEARS and AFTER he had bought stock with a strong past and concluding that, bar a major catastrophe, it would continue to make money.

All of the investors have bought and HELD to some extent. I know this will make everyone pissed off. BUT DAMN!! If you find a company who missed its SHORT TERM earnings and becomes a LONG TERM value with a big MOS, THEN BUY IT and HOLD IT. Don't sell it for minimal earnings because of some TA. It's probably still a long term value. In the long term is where the money is.

All any of them say is find a good company, understand it, triple check, ensure a BIG MOS, pull the trigger, then WAIT. Even Phil, the shortest term of them all, doesn't factor in time parameters of less than 1 year. All you are doing is making sure YOUR company isn't messing up.

If your calculations show one dollar for 50 cents then who the hell cares if the stock price tanks in 3 months? What would WARREN do? He'd buy more at that point. The market eventually will correct the "mis-valuation". No one will let the extra 50 cents get away, especially not the business managers.

You are CHECKING THE SIGHTS FIRST then PULLING the trigger. If you know you hit the deer who cares if it runs a few more miles? The farther the running the bigger the deer and the more you appreciate it. Eventually....you feast.

PS check out RS

[tombrown1]

Great to have you here.

I do agree that many have made lots of money with buy-and-hold, but I think you might just simply be unaware of the many, many people who have made a ton of money through technical analysis. 5 minutes of googling will show you this.

This is an endless and sometimes ugly debate that has been waged before many times. We can go there again, but for most it's a matter of preference. It's been shown that money can be made either way, so it's really up to the investor as to how they want to make it.

[jmcanoy1860]

No doubt that TA is a tool. My point wasn't anything to do with TA and more to do with the misinterpretation people have in their readings. From what I've been reading people are thinking that finding a value and buying at a cross will make them money immediately. If people want to be pure TA's then good, they should learn how to do that. It just seems to me that people are wanting a fortune telling formula which will guarantee immediate income. I want that to.
Barring that, and given the fact that I have a job outside of the market, finding a business that I would've opened in another life, realizing that it is ignored, undervalued and hopefully @$%@#$% upon is a good way to go. In this aspect the TA is the trigger and people need to treat it as such. NOT like a genie in a lamp.
The stock can still go down, it can go up, it can go up/down.