Need help with the big five numbers please!!!

[laine]

Hi all,
I just got done reading Phil Town's book and was running through a couple of examples and wanted to make sure that I was doing it correctly. If ya'll could look over my calculations, that would be greatly appreciated. I'm using Applied Material's stock ( just to pick a stock - it's definitely not a Rule #1 stock ), MSN money's numbers and was using Mr. Town's online calculators. I came up with:
ROIC: 5 year - 13.0%
1 year - 18.6%
Equity: 9 year - 11.48%
5 year - 2.98 %
3 year - 0.78%
1 year - 17.99%
Sales: 9 year - 9.42%
5 year - 13.97%
3 year - 6.7%
1 year - 6.19%
EPS: 9 year - 22.73%
5 year - 49.63%
3 year - 15.44%
1 year - 23.71%
Free Cash: 4 year - 21.9
3 year - 10.82
1 year - 14.72%

I also came up with a sticker price of $18.81 using the current EPS of 1.2 and an estimated EPS growth of 13% over the next 10 years and an estimated PE in 10 years of 18.7 ( average PE is lower than the doubling of 13%). Are these calculations right? Any help would be greatly appreciated...thanks!

[Sparty]

I got the same numbers for the big five as you did, except for free cash flow. I used MSN's number and came up with 27%,21%,8% (5,3,1 years).

Just to be clear, when I got to Equity, I would have stopped researching this company. There is no way to guess at a future growth rate when the Equity is this inconsistant. Also, it doesn't meet the 10% criteria.

For fun, lets say EPS = 1.2, 13% growth rate (Anylist Avg.), and PE = 18 .

I get future EPS = 4.07, Future Value per Share = $73.32, Sticker price $18.12, MOS Price = $9.06.

I don't see where you got PE = 18 from

[laine]

yikes...for the life of me, I can't figure out how you get those numbers for cash flow sparky...would you please walk me through that portion?

[tombrown1]

Morningstar has 10 years of free cash flow.