Apollo (APOL)

[ingo]

Hi allen,

I prefer ceco, too. But I fear those negative earnings' report of apol will pull down ceco, too. Maybe they will have lower earnings, too. As far as I know they'll report on November, 7th.

[mechanic]

I disagree with you guys. I think Apollo has a wide moat with lots of room to grow. I think it's clear that the big guys overreacted on the bad news with that 30% drop. Apollo does have some issues, though. They have some problems with turnover amongst senior management. Also, their is some bad legal news that they're facing. They may get sued for over a $billion.

Nonetheless, I'm taking advantage of Mr. Market's bipolarness, and I'm in at $36.96.

[mechanic]

Here's the numbers from MSN:

EPS = 2.49 ~ $2.50
#1 rate = 20%
72/20 = ~4 (i.e. 4 years to double)
1st double, EPS = $5
2nd double, EPS = $10 (in 2014)
Historical P/E = 30
2014 sticker = $300
Divided by 4 = $75 = Sticker price
Sticker price/2 = MOS = $37.50

Sorry if that's hard to follow. I haven't got the whole Investools/spreadsheet stuff goin' on.

This was estimated conservatively at every turn. The sticker price was from 2014, but it was discounted back to the present as if from 2016. That's a pretty big difference. Growing at 20%, 2 years is another half a double. So, if I were forecasting liberally, I may say that the EPS in 2016 would be $15, making the sticker $450. The MOS would then be ($450/4)/2, or $56.25. That seems like too liberal, though.

What I'm trying to say is, I think Apollo's a buy. What does everybody else think?

[Mira]

ingo and allan,

I could not find the CECO earning est. for the next five years on msn. I am affried that maybe giving me the wrong MOS. Where did you find that information?

[Gunnski]

APOL does not look like a R1 business to me right now. Hard to swallow the equity numbers. Hard to like any red numbers, I stop at that point to save time & do not even run MOS. I looked at the chart. Pewh. Good luck if you go.

[Gunnski]

If you like the sector, take a look at STRA, ESI, EPAX & DV

[johnisgitt]

Hello everyone. I have a question from a big-time beginner for Mechanic. I follow your analysis about $36 being a good buy price, but what about the three tools? Do the tools show that instituational investors are currently moving in or out from APOL? Thanks.

[allen]

Red arrow on the moving average (I use 50 day).
Green arrow on MACD
Red arrow on Slow Stochastic

[Justin]

Apollo Group, Inc. (Apollo Group) is a provider of higher education to working adults. The Company operates through its subsidiaries: The University of Phoenix, Inc. (University of Phoenix), Western International University, Inc. (Western International University), Institute for Professional Development and The College for Financial Planning, Inc. (the College for Financial Planning). As of August 31, 2005, Apollo Group offered its programs and services at 90 campuses and 154 learning centers in 39 states, Puerto Rico, Alberta, and British Columbia. The Company's combined degree enrollment was approximately 307,400 at August 31, 2005.

[pyoon]

I work as a part-time faculty at University of Phoenix. I heard they are closing down one of its locations in Northern VA. That was its third location (in Northern VA) opened not too long ago. Main reason was not getting enough students to sign up for classes. Maybe they are not growing as quickly as they anticipated.