ASV Incorporated (ASVI)

[npg]

AVSI is not in a uptrending sector right now. Guess it's the same for all the construction related stuff. FAST, WIRE, USG just to name a few.

One may have to be a bit patient until these start taking off. Could be up to 6 months.

[jasonok]

I think i might of pull the trigger too soon on this ...down 3.8% today, just noticed that WIRE up 6.3% today interesting.

[npg]

Originally Posted by jasonok

I think i might of pull the trigger too soon on this ...down 3.8% today, just noticed that WIRE up 6.3% today interesting.

Yeh. But you gotta account a few percent down on WIRE for the Cramer effect.

I am still in on FAST and will probably hold it until Q3. What I learned from this is that construction stuff is never good in winter. Duh!

[mgroeber]

Bought on 11/21 for $15.39, my first Rule 1 purchase. Can anyone shed some light on the "Short" columns (G through J) of the MOS calculator? ASVI has numbers much different than most other stocks on my watch list. These columns give information concerning the Short Ratio, Short % Float, Short % Increase/Decrease, and Squeeze Rank. I don't know what these numbers are really telling me. Is there a general rule to follow concerning these "short" figures before making a buy/sell decision?

[jkruer01]

I'm getting the following for MOS and Current Price:
MOS: $22.93
Current Price: $14.67

Is anyone else getting different numbers? I attached my spreadsheet.

[jhjessup]

Your MOS looks in the right range - I came up with a very similar number when I did my research.

Just keep in mind that it's not in a rising sector.

[phideaux]

Hey Folks,

Try using the newest version of the spreadsheet. You'll find the numbers are totally different! For example, just compare equity growth rates across the years for the different spreadsheets. The numbers are not the same. Which one is accurate, if either? I don't have the time right now to run these numbers by hand, but if anyone is seriously considering buying this stock, I think it would be highly adviseable to do so.

phi

[dmilroy]

Hi Guys,

I like ASVI and have been watching it for a while. It recently, May 5th, showed 3 green arrows, after a downturn and period of consolidation. The industry trend is definately upwards. Based on previous analyses, I valued ASVI with a Sticker $55.16 and MOS $27.59, but more recently, based on Equity gwth of 15% (a consensus of 12.59% for the most recent 4Q, a low and high analysts estimates of 15% and 17%) and PE of 30( based on a consensus of current PE of 20.14, a 5 yr avg PE of 40- with a high cutoff of 50, and historical PE from investools of 32.69), with a sticker of $24.13 and MOS of $12.06.

This is certainly below the current close of $17.20. However, I think that ASVI has seen a bottom and is a buy. My most optimistic MOS in the above scenario is a price of $16.09, well above the recent low of $14.99 on May 1. Therefore, I see it as a buy at current prices. My opinion only. I would buy at close today of $17.20 or as high as $17.60, with a stop loss level of $14.55 and a target sticker of $32.18, based on that $16.09 MOS, which would be well within the high of $35.00 of March 27 06.

Dave

[Hobbes]

I don't know enough about the company to buy it but just looking at the numbers I have more questions than reassurances...

1. What's with the drop-off in equity? Growth rates of 29.2%, 21.6%, and 26.4% for 9,5,3 years respectively and then 12.6% last year. Is this an one year thing or will it last? BIG difference in MOS based on the growth rates...

2. What happened to EPS and Sales this year?

This company was on fire until 2006...and now??? Big Red Flag.

btw - I calculated MOS at $10.96...I used the analyst estimate of growth at 20%...since 2006 throws the historical numbers into question...and I used the industry average P/E of 17.9 as opposed to the current company P/E of 20.1...my thinking here is that if the growth really is slowing down then a way above average multiple is probably not warranted.