China Mobile Ltd (CHL)

[Justin]

Ceradyne, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets advanced technical ceramic products, ceramic powders and components for defense, industrial, automotive/diesel and commercial applications. The Company's products include lightweight ceramic armor for soldiers and other military applications; ceramic industrial components for erosion and corrosion resistant applications; ceramic powders, including boron carbide, boron nitride, titanium diboride, calcium hexaboride and zirconium diboride; evaporation boats for metallization of materials for food packaging and other products; durable, reduced friction, ceramic diesel engine components; functional and frictional coatings primarily for automotive applications; translucent ceramic orthodontic brackets; ceramic-impregnated dispenser cathodes for microwave tubes, lasers and cathode ray tubes; ceramic crucibles for melting silicon in the photovoltaic solar cell manufacturing process, and ceramic missile radomes for the defense industry.

[steve44]

Hi Justin,

This stock came up in one of my Global Investools searches which I run every day.

As you noted, it has an acceptable MOS
and then it pulled 3 greens on Monday so I bought some.

And I got decent 4 Ms also but still learning how to do better 4 Ms research. Bullet proof vests, etc

Thanks,

Steve

[doreeg]

Would love to know more about this company..

The 10 year ROIC is a lttle below 10% The cash flow is erratic and a possible cause of concern without an explanation. Thoughts?

What is their Moat? What about Mgmt?

Anyone?
Thanks.
Doree

[steve44]

I believe they are supplying the government with light weight bullet proof vests for the boys in Iraq but I am still doing more research on the Moat and MGT

[allen]

What do y'all think about this one? The default spreadsheet (MSN) comes up with an MOS of $27.97. The price is 49.02, so at first it looks like a pass. But wait a second. It's using a P/E of 19. This is because the average of the 5 year high and the 5 year low is 19. And it is true that the current P/E is 23. But the actual 10 year average is 34. And the analyst's expected growth rate, which is also the Rule #1 growth rate in this case, just happens to be exactly half of that, or 17%.

If you plug in a P/E of 34, you get an MOS of $48.89, which is just 13 cents higher than the current price. And oh, by the way, the tools have been showing 3 green arrows since earlier in August.

The EPS graph has been rising almost linearly for 10 years. The one metric I'm a little questioning is the last 12 months of cash flow. That went down, probably (I'm guessing) because of heavy remodeling (targeting stores to specific demographics) recently. But the 3 year cash flow is way up.

I'd be interested in your takes.

Allen

[Rocket Dawg]

Originally Posted by allen

If you plug in a P/E of 34, you get an MOS of $48.89, which is just 13 cents higher than the current price. And oh, by the way, the tools have been showing 3 green arrows since earlier in August.

Hi Allen,


BBY has been one of my Rule #1 choices for about a month now and I've traded on it once in the earlier part of August. I made about 3% but then got out with all the arrows still showing green because I wanted to go 100% in cash for a bit.

My MOS is 46.37 for BBY so that comes real close to what you have. It's current price is just a bit over that as you mentioned. I'm going to wait for the next time it drops in price to get in again (with 3 greens... of course!).

Thanks!

Chuck

[Justin]

Best Buy Co., Inc. (Best Buy) is a specialty retailer of consumer electronics, home-office products, entertainment software, appliances and related services. The Company operates retail stores and commercial Websites under the brand names Best Buy (BestBuy.com and BestBuyCanada.ca), Future Shop (FutureShop.ca), Magnolia Audio Video (MagnoliaAV.com) and Geek Squad (GeekSquad.com and GeekSquad.ca). During the fiscal year ended February 25, 2006 (fiscal 2006), it operated two segments: Domestic and International. The Domestic segment is comprised of all United States store and online operations, including Best Buy, Magnolia Audio Video and Geek Squad. The International segment is comprised of all Canadian store and online operations, including Future Shop, Best Buy and Geek Squad. The International segment offers products and services similar to those offered by the Domestic segment.

[allen]

Thanks, Justin, for posting the Investools version. I re-ran the MSN spreadsheet this morning, and got an average 10 year PE of 25. I'm not sure why I was getting 34 on Friday, but I'm getting 25 now, which is closer to the Rule 1 PE of 26 that Investools is giving. Given that the PE has been hovering around 19 for 3 years, I was probably too generous.

That being the case, using the Investools numbers, sticker of $75, MOS of $37 seems reasonable. Current stock price is about $48, so we're a bit above our MOS, but could still exceed the 15% annual return over 10 years. (If Investools is right, you're looking at 20% annual return---plus about 0.8% counting dividends). Not bad, but not an ideal cushion.

[doreeg]

Hello,
Layne - I noticed you joined this forum. Welcome. How are you (or anyone else) feeling about Ceradyne these days. I have raised my MOS to about $53+ based on newest earnings and it is trading at about $42+. The numbers are looking good but it is a downtrending stock. I would post the spreadsheet but have not figured out how yet. But I used an EPS of $3.16, Historical PE of 27 and Analysts Growth Rate of 17.5%.

The Big 5 aren't perfect but they are not bad either.

Comments?
Doree

[Layne]

Hi Doree,

I am sorry I haven't seen your post until today. I have lots to say regarding my thoughts on this company (CRDN), but unfortunately I will have to write more on this later. My day occupation has kept me hopping like crazy and I have to get out the door. I will give you more later....btw, it is taking me a little time to get used to this format so I have a learning curve ahead to become proficient on this forum.

Layne

p.s. I am in on this company at 42 and several other entries around this pricing.