Oil-Slippery Slope

[Gunnski]

I really think oil is about to retrace.

I had a similar set up (chart) back in Nov. 2007. I posted that the Q's were about to retrace. I suggested looking at QID (Proshares) which is Ultra Short on the QQQQ; 2x's short. I rode that in a short period of time from low $30.00's, to $55.00 area. Nice for an ETF.

Back to oil. It looks very toppy right now. I suggest taking a look at DUG, (Proshares) Ultra Short Oil & Gas. It is an ETF, so it trades like a stock. It is not an option, contract or commodity.

DUG has consolidated, sitting on a nice bottom, lots of recent vol. I would watch for a spike in RSI. MA's are starting to curl upward, thats a good thing.

One to watch. Just an idea.

[Gunnski]

Really like the DUG chart today (5/12/08, Mon.). Gapped up & then consolidated. Oil did drop a few bucks. It will continue to drop for awhile, nice retrace. It will be choppy though.

DUG was up a touch today +.54%. Lots of heads on a swivel right now. Oil will drop. To toppy.

Options X week. It could get wicked/whipsawed.

[Gunnski]

I just missed. By two months. In the spirt of good investing. Just missed!~ "Slippery" is the Key word.....

[Patti120]

Hi Gunnski,

Have you bought a position in DUG at this point? and where do you see this etf going?

Thanks!

[Gunnski]

I looked at DUG on the oil side, as well as UNG & DDG. I do not understand the oil mkt., so I'll pass. Oil seems to trade on information & not on supply & demand. Very attractive, wish I would have jumped in. My call (via T.A.) was a little late, so I went else where. I'll still follow the oil mkt. Especially as an indicator.

I have learned that when Oil is down (USO, = -) & Financials & U.S. Dollar positive, (XLF, = +) & the U.S Bullish Dollar (UUP, = +), the market rises. Something to monitor. You can put those (3) tickers in your live ticker tape and monitor. Gives a nice pulse of the mkt.
Oil = USO price does have a direct effect on the current market.

No nut licking here, but on the S&P 500 aka: SPY, I have done well with QID (2x's short S&P500). I bought back in Nov. '07, as posted on these boards. Looking at it again very seriously. This market currently is broken!

Wait until Tue., (8-5-08), after the Fed. meeting. Will be very interesting. I think today was just a prelude to the mkt. activity for Tue. Hold on for another down day. Inflation will be the next big buzz word.