"Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets"

[Gunnski]

This book was written by Stan Weinstein. Published by McGraw Hill. Really cheap on Amazon. Check out the reviews.

I recommend it to anyone who would like to supplement their tools with Rule #1 wonderful businesses. I know you will be a better investor.

Right now is a great time to do lots of reading and work on your watch list.

The knocks on the book is it is old. It is time tested & it works! Nothing wrong with having a little history. The charts are not the best, but the content is there. It is well wriiten, so knuckleheads like me can understand it.

Anyone read the book? I would be interested in your feed back. I ran a search on the board & rec'd. no hits regarding this book. I was surprised. Possibly it is Stan's hair! That hair brings back many good memories! Accept the oil price in 1972. I remember back them they were calling for $100.00 a barrel for oil & the world was coming to an end. Currently, that sounds slightly familair.

A must read!

[roicommunity]

OK, so I went to Amazon and this is what I found:

By Charles E. Harper (Charlottesville, VA) - See all my reviews
The book is a fun read. It describes Mr. Weinstein's chart breakout method. The problem is that Mr. Weinstein does not provide a track record of his method in the book. I was able to find a 1998 reference from the Business Week website citing a ten-year return of his now-defunct Professional Tape Reader service of 7.13% per year. The S&P returned approximately 15% per year over the same period.

Interestingly, the New USA Fund, established by David Ryan, and using another breakout strategy, that of Investors Business Daily's CANSLIM method, posted only a 3.14% return per year from April 1992 to May 1995. This was after he had won some U.S. Investing Championships with over 100% gains. This fund is now defunct.

When you look at charts of stocks that have had big runups, you will often find a breakout from an area of consolidation. The problem is that careful examination of charts of stocks in general will reveal these same patterns, often not followed by a big price move. Any decent method will show periods of spectacular return, but the vast majority won't beat the indices long-term.

The main value of this book, in my opinion, is reinforcement of the importance of risk control and exit strategy. Don't buy this book expecting to find the Holy Grail of investing.

AND

By A Customer

I bought this book because of the high ratings in Amazon. I must say that I fail to see why it deserves such high ratings.

The book introduced one central theme - look for a big volume jump when the price crosses the 150-day moving average - and was repetitive after that. The book tried to discuss chart patterns (e.g. head-shoulders) but was pretty lame. The book did not mention anything about other market indicators such as MACD, RSI, etc. Were these indicators unimportant? Were these indicators not in fashion back in 1990? I was perplexed. If you are looking for an introduction to technical analysis, there are better tutorials out on the web than this book (just google "technical analysis"). Save your money for your next investment.

So it appears that if one were to go to a bookstore and do a quick read, the main idea of the book could be grasped in a 15' session.

Isn't it interesting that Weinstein and Ryan, when given the chance to run their own funds and put their ideas in actual practice, did worse than average?

Is beating the index a hard thing to do? I don't know. Personally, I have a 23% average and that does not take into account my recent return average of 73%. I am neither a classic TA or fundamentalist. In fact, I would state that my main strategy is to be as conservative as possible.

I believe there are benefits to reading the charts and "the tape". Yet, I am in general agreement with the sentiment that most TA is like astrology. For me when looking up the night sky at the stars, some people will see patterns like the zodiac and make some kind of belief system based on that (astrology). Others look at the stars, make measurements, test hypotheses, and develop a science (astronomy).

Thanks Gunnski and others for your book recommendations. I do read your suggestions and often check them out at Amazon or at my local bookstore. I am always looking to educate myself.

-JD

[Gunnski]

Thanks ROIC for the heads up. I think full disclosure is required here though. As we, are all just trying to learn to be better investors! You were kind enough to post 2 reviews out of the (75) posted. Most of which are very positive. (58) 5 Stars & (8) 4 Stars; average rating 4 1/2 Stars.

I agree with you on any investment book. Buyer beware.

Regarding the second reviewer's suggesting to save your money to invest, instead of buying the book. He is probably correct. The $13.57 is a back breaker for a lot of portfolios. It has been money well invested for me.

To support his book, please look at a 2 year, daily chart for POT & XIDE. POT is especially a thing of beauty. I bought Oct. '06 @ 32.00 @ the breakout. It went right to 150ish, and recently pulled back to 108 area. I am still holding. XIDE I bought at the beginning of 2007 at 4.00 can change. I got out after the double top @ 10.00 July 2007. Many more to share. I believe it does work & it is simple. Thats my review.

[Gunnski]

Check this book out for Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3 and Stage 4 stocks. It will be worth your time.

[WileyJames]

The $13.57 is a back breaker for a lot of portfolios. It has been money well invested for me.

I have requested this book on interlibrary loan. I'm so cheap, I never buy books.

[Jenkmister]

Gunnkski;

Per your post above regarding buying POT, and still holding... Any comments regarding recent stock price action? The stock dropped below the 50 DMA and could not work back above this level on July 31st.

The 50 DMA has rolled over, going flat, while the 200 DMA is still climbing. Is this changing Stages? Going to Stage 3, if not Stage 4?

The stock price is now $40/share below it's recent peak of $240, decline of 17%. Do you think this is a 'typical correction', or peak and now will/could be dropping?

Industry: These have done great over the past couple years? Do you think the 'big guys' are starting to exit, even with increasing earnings and moving on? Or are you holding, thinking there will be another leg up?

Just looking for your words of wisdom on how to watch the stock and when to SELL to protect gains.

Thanks in advance;
PDE

[Gunnski]

J.M.,

Still holding. There has been some short term negativity re: PRICE. If you take a look at a Weekly & Monthly chart, price still above MA(50) & MA(150). Long term trend is still positive!

I have decided to sell 1/2 my position with a break below MA(150).

POT is currently working on a big expandion in Canada.

Is it running out of steam? Maybe, I am watching it close, I still think it has legs.

Right now it would be a guess if it is going into Stage 3. We will not know that until the next move. I am not going to try and guess. Profit taking? Consoladation? Distribution? Only PRICE will tell.

I do not think this is an area to add to your position or buy it currently.

I love this sector (Fertilizer). Please see: Barchart.com: Online financial quotes, charts, and technical analysis for stock and commodity traders. Click on Sector. You'll see Fertilizer holding strong.

Additionally, check out CF, MOS, SQM, TRA, AGU & TNH for opportunities that are more reasonable than POT.

"Market Edge" seems to agree with me. See their very important indicators (BR=BEARISH), & MA summary. I am looking at the current price action as a short term hiccup.


"Market Edge" report:
filePOT.pdf

Please click on chart:



I hope that helps! Best of investing.

[tombrown1]

I've made a fair amount of money in CF over the past few months. I still like them a lot. Unfortunately the time to buy was about a week ago when it dipped down to its support.

Although, at a second glance it looks like it just broke out of a short term resistance and has been holding support there for 2 sessions now. Another break up looks likely here.

[WileyJames]

Gunnski - thanks for the recommendation. I can see how this book is a real good fit with R1 investing.

[Gunnski]

W.J.,

It will open your eyes! I no longer use the R-1 tools as outlined in Phil's book. I look only at Stage 1 & Stage 2 for entry. Stage 3 and Stage 4 for exit. Great way to know when to buy & know when to pass. Very easy!

I will not even look at a stock in level 4 as a buy canidate. Speeds things up when reviewing charts!

Book is cheap to buy. I used Amazon. I am sure your local libarary will have it too.

If you want to look at something more current. There is only one place. Brian Shannon at AlphaTrends!

His book uses Stan Weinstein's ideas in a more current way to view stocks. Yes, his book is pricey. I t will be the best $80.00 bucks you spend on a T.A. book. Trade with confidence with what your learn here and using time frames outlined in Brian's book. No more lagging indicators for me!

If nothing else enjoy Brian's free daily video. Very cheap education!

Best of investing!