CMG possible pull the trigger stock?

[maxedout]

Ran thru Brian Plexico Rule1 Pro Spreadsheet and here are the numbers:
EPS 2.27
EPS Rate 25%
PE 49.4
FUTURE EPS 20.64
Future stock Price 1019.57
Sticker 252.02
Current Price 100.70
MOS 126.01
MACD D Up Tick
Stochastics Up
MA (10) Up MA (30) down

My questions are this: Can anyone define a MOAT and what are you bullish or bearish on this stocks durection?

[tombrown1]

Make sure you always run your own numbers whenever you seriously consider a stock. There is a manual excel template around here somewhere you can download.

You're hoping for a 25% growth rate over the next 10 years - That would take a small miracle for any company - but it has happened.

You're hoping for a pe of 49.5 in ten years - that would take a very large miracle. This would mean that in 10 years they would still be expecting a 25% growth rate over the NEXT ten years. That would basically mean that this restaurant would be Microsoft in 20 years.

My (very rough) analysis:
With a very lofty growth rate of 18% and also a very lofty pe of 30 I get a MOS of $44.05. Currently selling at around $100.

Technically I wouldn't be involved in them, but it's possible that some tech. analysts would be interested.

To answer your questions:
Seems to me to be unpredictable (new company) with no moat (new company and lots of competition). I'm neither bullish nor bearish - just don't know.

[KatonahMike]

From the company report:

Chipotle serves burritos, burrito bowls, tacos and salads.... ...customers can choose from four different meats, two types of beans and a range of extras, such as salsas, guacamole, cheese and lettuce.

I'll be damned if I can see a moat. I recently ate at a Panchero's Mexican Grill franchise in Shelton, CT, and the offering appears to be a mirror image.

Maybe this is a jockey bet? What is Chipotle's CEO like?

[maxedout]

Originally Posted by KatonahMike

From the company report:

I'll be damned if I can see a moat. I recently ate at a Panchero's Mexican Grill franchise in Shelton, CT, and the offering appears to be a mirror image.

Maybe this is a jockey bet? What is Chipotle's CEO like?

Started out as a line cook and moved up.
Every Chipolte I visit is standing room only.
The numbers are there.
I see the moat in the ROIC plus the fact that they serve only organic chicken and everything is freshly made to order.
McDonalds had a stake in it for a while.
The only thing I fall favor on is the CEO tripled his salary.
Maybe this is bad and maybe not?
The company is producing record profits.

[pkamoako]

Maxedout,
I used to go to rule1.com to take a glance on MOS, sticker price and five big numbers but it is not online anymore. Please can u send me a link to the Brian Plexico Rule1 Pro Spreadsheet thanks.

[maxedout]

Rule #1 Numbers: Analysis of Rule #1, the Phil Town book

[Gunnski]

I would be very careful here. Right now I see more downside than up. Very risky.

Where is their MOAT? Competition from the likes of PANDA (doing lots of TV ads right now , on west coast at least), PANERA BREAD & QDOBA, in the fast serve area.

Slowing economy limits spending on non-essentials.

Their fund., numbers at spotty at best using MSN. If I do not quailify on ROIC numbers, I usually do not waste my time and move on.

CMG is in a Stage 3, beginning of Stage 4 (Stan Weinstein), both negative. Never invest in these areas. Looks toppy!

Best of luck, if you go. Hope I am wrong.

[adampepp]

P/E is now around 20 (more reasonable).. time to buy after the $0.01 miss on earnings drove this down 20%. No moat and not a R1 pick but if I were ever to speculate on the success of any company I'de put my bets on CMG. Great concept, creating a trend/brand strength similar to that of SBUX, addicting food, great management, lines out the door on a daily basis (and they move people quick).

I think that CMG is a good buy a 3-4 year hold. It was way overpriced at 100+ but now its very reasonable. Been eyeing this one for awhile and now is a great opportunity.

Adam

[Gunnski]

Have you ever tried to catch a falling knife?

[adampepp]

Well, I guess I wasn't blessed with the ability to pick the bottom all the time then, so I'll make due with catching falling knives.

The business is still growing at an impressive clip even after being challenged with two quarters of "recession". Other restaurants are doing OK to bad.

Will it go down more? probably.. but I dont know when or how much