TNH right at MOS sinking lower!!!

[tinvesting]

Hi All,
TNH is below MOS according to my calculations. It is an uncovered stock so I had to use a growth rate based on BVPS. The concern that I have is that it is a limited partnership with major control of a GP, TRA. When doing homework on the management what do you suggest? All other signals except management research seems to point that this is a real winner. Any thought?
Thanks
tinvesting...

SYMBOLtnhyears987654321TTMAVERAGESMSN Money ROIC41.9128.6ROIC#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALUE!BVPS2%2%1%3%4%12%15%24%44%12%EPS24%37%39%53%101%99%65%92%345%95%Sales11%14%12%13%14%12%15%18%50%18%Cash Flow27%111%30%168%41%127%65%369%331%141%operating cash flow25%112%30%170%43%122%60%274%314%128%rule #1 growth rate12%my equity growth rate12%analyst est eps growth rate0%my rate0.12number of years10Future Earnigs Per Share$40.25 PE24default PE24historical PE---Future Stock Price$966.04 Rate of Return15%Sticker Price$238.79 grahams sticker300.369520 year aa bond yield6.17$119.40 150.1848MOS$119.40

[Gunnski]

This one does not pass the smell test for me. 74.31% Insider Ownership, only 10.36% Inst. Ownership.

Lots of unknowns @ MSN & Yahoo Finance. I have a fair value price @ $103.29, currently @ $119ish. Not on sale for me. Looks like it could break down below current support level of the price channel it is currently in.

Pretty pricey for all the unknows!

If you go, I suggest the risky basket. I hope it runs back up to the 160's for you!

Good luck!

[adampepp]

Gunnski,

I'm curious as to how you are valuing ownership? Why is 70% insider ownership a bad thing? Does this open up potential for fraud or something else? Or does this just mean that the stock value is being driven by inside forces and is not really representative of market perception? Is there an optimal ownership ratio we are looking at?


Thanks!

Adam

[Gunnski]

Value: MY down & dirty method. Take 52 Week High & 52 Week Low. Subtract. Take the sum * .40. Add that sum back to the 52 week low. That is my fair value.

70% insider ownership with a co. that does not post many of it's numbers & greed are factors that concern me. If I do not understand it. I am not going to invest in it. Shell co.? I dunno. Cook the books? Probably.

R-1 investors try and catch the wave of the Inst. money flowing into a wonderful biz. I don't know if that happens with all the insider action.

I do not think there is a prime number for ownership. I would think a high Inst. Ownership is important. As banks, Ret. Funds, mutual funds etc. are what drive the price. But, there are those that like 30%+ insider ownership. They feel the jockey(s) are motivated to make good earnings. It is always your call. I like this sector & made a killing with POT. That stock has been great for me.

Bottom line there really is no right answer for me re: Insider Ownership.

The NASDAQ web site has a neat tool to research Insider v. Inst. Investors. Check it out! Or, J3 Information Service. J3SG - Home. Take J3's Tour (lower right corner, nice free education).

If you go to J3 it is free to register. They rank stocks by amount of Insider activity. ELOY was ranked #1. Heavy activity in May-June 2008. Stocks has gone down badly. Interesting. On the flip side, TNH with all that Insider ownership has not recorded a buy/sell since 2007 & then there was only one recorded. More interesting. I want to see some Insider Buying with that type of ownership! Play the "jockey", per the R-1 book.

Best of investing!

[tinvesting]

Thanks guys! Those are some very good points...esp w.r.t large insider ownership.

So you are basically saying, how can the price been driven up substantially with only a small margin ouf outsanding shares owned by institutions.

Thanks

[Gunnski]

Hey Tin,

Others will demand high %#'s of Insider Ownership. After I researched it, many feel it can be a good thing. You'll need to fit the situation to your selection process, the type of biz. it is & your comfort level. If in doubt or you do not understand it. Do the right thing & find the answer or simply turn the page to another biz.

It appears that heavy Insider Ownership is considered good with a small cap, poss. new company. Strickly for the Risky Portfolio!

I think there is to much opportunity to mess with things, reports, updates, fin.books, earnings, new products, sales etc.) w/ heavy Insider Ownership. That is just me, I am sure I am wrong.

[AlexG]

Originally Posted by Gunnski

Value: MY down & dirty method. Take 52 Week High & 52 Week Low. Subtract. Take the sum * .40. Add that sum back to the 52 week low. That is my fair value.

How would you value a private company?

[Gunnski]

I have no idea of what info. you have available to you. My thought is if I can't understand it, I won't invest in it.

What information do you have available on the private co.?

If you have a calculated intrinsic value, you can use a discounted rate. You can use a 20%-30% rate. Some use up to 60%. If the stock still has a MOS, it is a buy.

If you have a chart simply log the 52 wk. high & low. Apply the .40, add that to the 52 wk low.

[AlexG]

Originally Posted by Gunnski

I have no idea of what info. you have available to you. My thought is if I can't understand it, I won't invest in it.

Assuming the owner's of the business allow you to see financial reports (income statement,balance sheet, statement of cash flows)

Originally Posted by Gunnski

What information do you have available on the private co.?

^ see above

Originally Posted by Gunnski

If you have a chart simply log the 52 wk. high & low. Apply the .40, add that to the 52 wk low.

Private companies do not have charts lol

[Gunnski]

"if I can't understand it, I won't invest in it."

I really fail to see your point. Hope you had a nice laugh! You may find the Yahoo boards more to your speed and entertainment.

Have a fun day.