Garmin (GRMN)

[pkamoako]

if i have to bet, I will be short in grmn, it looks eerily similar to what happen around 03/24/08 when it drop from sixty dollars to forty dollars, the MACD felt a resistence at the positive range and dropped to the negative. Yes i think it is about to drop more

[jkruer01]

Originally Posted by Gunnski

Before I check the charts. I suggest you check the short activity on this bad boy.

50 (MA) is pretty standard area of resistance/support.

Where is your X date on the PUT?

I was looking at purchasing a June PUT.

Jeremy

[jkruer01]

Originally Posted by pkamoako

if i have to bet, I will be short in grmn, it looks eerily similar to what happen around 03/24/08 when it drop from sixty dollars to forty dollars, the MACD felt a resistence at the positive range and dropped to the negative. Yes i think it is about to drop more

That is what I was thinking.

JEremy

[JayC]

Garmin has been beat up and if there was ever a great example of panic, this is one. The stock was going straight up. The fundamentals were there, the MOS calc says this bad boy is on sale (MOS is $50). So what cause the big boys to panic. Well, Nokia bought Mavteq, the prime source of maps for Garmin. Then they made a sizable counter bid to TomTom for a dutch map company (TeleAtlas) that just looks desperate. Talk about a fire in the theater ... the stampede crushed a lot of little guys.

But what changed about the core company? Nothing, still great leadership, excellent products (though they are yielding market share to less expensive (Magellan, TomTom) models and to comodity level units.

What's new? They are entering the phone market. Will this be a cash cow or a drain? Who knows but they will be competing against some power playes like Apple, RIMM, and Nokia.

Bottom line, do you think Garmin will be around in 20 years? I do, they are still selling OEM units and every new car has a GPS unit at a premium ($1900 versus $700 for a Nuvi). Car companies will boast the "Garmin GPS" like they boast the crap Bose radios. Think Intel Inside.

I made some gains on my Garmin trades last summer, but I got out when the market started to turn bearish. Still not liking the "environment, but this one will be a chapter in Phil's next book no doubt about it.

FWIW,
Jay

[JayC]

I forgot to address your TA. I see the next support at $30 not $28. This was resistance back in Jan 2005, and support in September of 2005. At this point the 30-day MA became the line of support. Keep in mind that option strikes are a good source of support/resistance values too.

FWIW,
Jay

[jkruer01]

JayC,

Good insight and comments. I have to say that I agree with everything you said.

Thanks!
Jeremy