My portfolio

[tombrown1]

I know you're new to this, and maybe I can save you some time by saying that most people don't seem to be happy with Phil's tools. If you can make them work, then great.

I tried Scottrade, and didn't like them for various reasons - went to think or swim - check them out, a lot more options for trading and also cheaper commissions - and much better charting software.

You didn't post off-topic, I'm hoping people will post their portfolios and reasons so we can all learn something.

[KatonahMike]

Just added UPL at 86.10. So now my portfolio is:

USB 20% (in at 33.50)
TASR 8% (in at 7.50)
UPL 30% (in at 86.10)
cash 42%

I have trailing stops on USB at 1% and TASR at 2%.

Mike

[Gunnski]

Nice job KMike. Spread the wealth around we'll figure out the treads!

Not finding fault here, I do recall in the R-1 book Phil mentioning the 3 tools alone will not make you money. Please just be careful. They are helpful, but there are much better set ups, that you'll learn, as you continued to read & learn.

Re: Entry points, make sure at least the short trend trends are movong up. I like an EMA 4, EMA 8 & EMA 21, all curling upwards, or already surging upward, nice spacing between the EMA's and a peppy increasing RSI, with good vol. surge. That is a good combo. I like the price to be above the MA(150) or at least the (50).

[KatonahMike]

Originally Posted by KatonahMike

Just added UPL at 86.10.

I have to learn to pick better entry points. Everyone keeps reiterating that this is a buy, but it's tanked $3 in less than 24 hours. I'm trying to decide if I should sell it and move on or hang on for the expected gain.

[Gunnski]

"Everyone keeps" that is a HUGE CLUE!

Nice situation to go the other way.

[npg]

Originally Posted by KatonahMike

I have to learn to pick better entry points. Everyone keeps reiterating that this is a buy, but it's tanked $3 in less than 24 hours. I'm trying to decide if I should sell it and move on or hang on for the expected gain.

You need to form an opinion for yourself, not by what is being sold to you either in the media or via other channels.

On the other hand, going categorically against the flow is no better than going with the flow.

The important bit is to become good at forming ones own opinion. This is why one needs to remain within a domain that one has the ability to grasp and eventually figure.

Success in this sort of activity will never be formulaic. Rather, it depends on very good judgment. Look and Munger and Buffett, both have outstanding abilities forming opinions and judgments about various issues.

So, forget what everyone says. Think about what you make of it.

Don't worry if this sort of stuff doesn't come outright. That happens for nobody. It's an iterative process and requires practice.

[KatonahMike]

Thanks Gunnski and npg for your responses- I see merit in both of them.

Gunnski, the contrarian approach is very much a central theme in Rule #1, and I can see why I may want to step back a second before jumping in in the future- at least to gauge my entry point better.

npg, I agree with respect to forming one's own opinion. While I am new to this, I'm also fairly cautious, and always inclined to question advice that doesn't have supporting evidence.

In the case of UPL, Juback made (I thought) a good case for investing in natural gas right now, and the overwhelming majority was in accord, so I jumped in. Only to watch it tank $3 in two days! That's when I dug in further and saw that the PE for UPL is 60, which made me get a bad feeling. I was inches from selling at a substantial loss yesterday, but I decided to stick it out a bit longer, since the longer-term trend is still upward.

This morning, UPL is up by a lot, and while I was tempted to ride it, I decided to put in a trailing stop of 1%, which executed at 87.27. I don't doubt that it'll now go up to 100, but I'm ahead, and just learned a valuable lesson without getting burned: I have no stomach for insane PE's. I will most likely invest in another natural gas producer, and soon, but I'm going to research one with more realistic fundamentals, and then watch closely for a good entry point.

[meverly]

Have read Phil's book twice. Have watched him on TV. I believe his system is great and see no reason it won't work. He also sounds like a great guy to hang out with, however, I am too lazy to do all the work required so I just read the Hulbert Financial Digest, pick the top fund manager and let it ride!!! How's 45% on an IRA?

[Gunnski]

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." ~ Lau-tza.

[Stockowner]

A portfolio consisting entirely of stock picks made on grounds of technical analysis? Sounds extremely risky.