My portfolio

[Gunnski]

Really? Humm.

Timothy Sykes - Stock Trader, Author, Entrepreneur

Not advocating this style.

[tombrown1]

Just sold aapl today and picked up abb. It's working on new highs and looks like the sky's the limit.

[npg]

Hmmm, doesn't look like ABB is producing the same returns as AAPL. Of course, this can change... is there something that escapes me?

I hate to say that it doesn't look like a good swap to me.

Ah well...

[tombrown1]

Purely a technical play. ABB's chart looks good to me right now - working on a new all-time high; and I wonder if people trading AAPL are getting nervous about approaching the magic 200 - it could possibly hit resistance there. If it busts out a new all-time high on big volume I might get back in.

[KatonahMike]

I've been sitting in cash the last couple of weeks, but just bought MPWR at 24.60 yesterday. This is my first technical purchase, based on the cup and handle pattern. I confess, I'm uncomfortable with the high PE, but aside from that, it looks like it's doing well. I'm going to watch it closely over the next couple of days.

[npg]

Originally Posted by tombrown1

Purely a technical play. ABB's chart looks good to me right now - working on a new all-time high; and I wonder if people trading AAPL are getting nervous about approaching the magic 200 - it could possibly hit resistance there. If it busts out a new all-time high on big volume I might get back in.

What is magic about 200? How does that relate to their business growth and the fact that they are sitting on a ridiculous market share around 7% with all indicators pointing towards increased demand and expanding product line and revenue streams? That market share is going north. And the share price alongside with it.

10% - 15% market share is very realistic. From my point of view its a conservative estimate.

I'm buying whenever the market gets nervous about this security :)

[Gunnski]

"Magic"? We both know there is no such thing investing/trading. From a T.A. stand point, your questions about biz growth, mkt. share, mkt. share %, demand-expand, etc. is all baked into the price, price movement & vol. Follow those footsteps to sucess.

Price, vol. & time are what is important. Yes, it is vodoo, but it works!

Regarding the MA(200) it simply smooths out choppy price action, "noise" of the day to day meandering. What is important is the overall trend. When a stock breaks above the MA(200) it simply has broken above a long term trend. Considered bullish, as new investors will need to pony up more than the ave. price paid for the last 200 days. That is the expansion I want to see.

Buy any stock that simply crosses above the MA(200). Heck no! It is simply indicating the stock is in greater demand over the last 200 days. Important clue to our sucess for following footsteps to sucess/profit.

Price is key. All the fundamental examination is worked into price by the big kids. Hey, let them deal with earning surprises, hiring/firing, new product, old product, stock splits, 10-K's etc. It is already baked into price & vol.

Bottom line the MA(200) is perceived to to be the dividing line between a stock that is technically healthy and one that is not.

As a Rule 1 investor, you want to find a wonderful biz and watch it grow. You are an investor and not a trader of the market. So, long term trend is your friend. CAKE as the example used in the book, was above it's MA(150) in 2003. I could not get a chart using MA(200). Sure the "Connelly's" Doug-Susan, made a nice pick in the book example in 2003, but the stock was in an uptrend, which they rode, as outlined in the book. Funny how they found this wonderful R-1 biz on their first scan.

Take a look at the SPY 3 yr. chart below, (mirrors S&P 500), which people should really watch as a true indicator of the current market. The MA(200) really is an indicator of good times and bad. Check out the HEAVY spike in sell vol. each time SPY broke below the MA(200). Those are not people with 1000 shares invested! That is real hit me in the pocket book evidence. No one is cooking those numbers up in in some fundamental report ie: earnings. Which are lagging behind. Price lets you know what is going on TODAY. Not guessing what earning will be in 5 or 10 years. That is a JOKE! If you could do that Kreskin would be a billonaire. What is happening now matters.

Check a 10 & 20 yr. chart out with a MA(200). The MA(200) is a true indicator of the market trend.

I think it especially hits home right now, as the SPY is below the MA(200) & trending down. It is clearly in Level 4 (Stan Weinstein) & not a time to invest!

SPY 3 yr. daily chart:

[tombrown1]

Thanks for backing me up Gun, but I was actually referring to $200.

It hit a previous high around $202 near Christmas '07 and it's approaching that number again - $200 is also a big round number that offers a psychological support/resistance line.

Mastercard is currently doing the same thing with $300 - it hit resistance there, then shot up above it and now is forming a nice support there.

I know you think it's voodoo, but it's not - check out Google - look at the $500, $600, and $700 levels over the last couple of years - they form support or resistance right around those levels.

NPG, I know I'm not responding to anything you mentioned about the company - I'm starting to believe that really knowing a company entails an almost endless amount of work; but that knowledge is already baked into the price. So reading price patterns seems to encompass fundamental analysis.

Here we are, bickering about TA vs. fundamental again. Sorry to fuel the fire.

[npg]

Oh, that's no big deal any more. I formed my mental model as far as investing is concerned and have concluded my 'research' into such matters. I have nothing more to add ;)

[KatonahMike]

Originally Posted by tombrown1

Just sold aapl today and picked up abb. It's working on new highs and looks like the sky's the limit.

After reading Jim Jubak's article this morning, I bought AAPL at $187.40. Jubak is targeting $235 over the next 12 months, which may be optimistic given your concerns about the magic 200. But even if it gets back up near 200, I'd call that a nice return.

This is assuming, of course, that the projected hype around their newest iPhone causes something to happen.